It will advance greatly during the next several years and the effect is going to be twofold. One is that a larger variety of vehicle models and specifications will be available because simulation will enable them to be produced more cost effectively. Secondly, the end user may have to bear more of the environmental compliance burden because vehicle use can be tracked more accurately with more advanced technologies.
Thus not only must the manufacturer produce a product that meets specifications when new, but the end user will be responsible for ensuring the product is used in a way that is consistent with environmental performance over its lifecycle.
Check out PSAT for more info on simulation: http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/HV/429.pdf